back!

It's been about 5 months since I've last blogged and am not about to let it die though. Learnt a lot during this time about myself and the way I deal with risk. It seems to me that I still have a lot to pick up. The interesting thing about stock investing so far for me, is that it's the best way to learn about yourself.

You learn about what kind of risks you are willing to take, whether you can sleep at night after making a counter purchase and how you deal with situations for example, mass selling in the market. And I realize it's very difficult to follow your principles to a T, as sometimes jumping numbers can be alluring..and deceiving.

Dabbled in some basic technical analysis over the months..It's pretty good to study the trends and see how things turn out the way you thought. However, the past month has not being a good period of seeing trends as the markets were way unpredictable.

I really do hope to continue with this blog amidst my busy schedule. Heading down to Suntec City later for SGX investor day later on..hope I can gain something from it.

still oversold

Market has been in oversold territory for the whole of this week and last week, signalling pretty much pessimism in the broad market.

Present holdings in Singtel, Ezra, Capitaland and Keppel Corp seem to be hovering around buying price and it seems the only things I can do is hold or buy more of each counter.

Apparently, resistance is at 2850, failing to break would cause the index to fluctuate under 2800. The fundamentals of the above mentioned companies are pretty strong, and Capitaland was bought on the dip after it hit a high of $4.40.

It would probably be good to keep Keppel in the stable for these couple of months and see what the 'coming dividends' status can do to its share price. 1:5 unit issue is coming up. Timing the sale would be crucial to ensure dividends and maximum capital appreciation.

so what's going on now..

Market has seen a drop of about 200 points over the past week and a half. Scary I must say, but necessary in the bigger scheme of things. Given that the STI had been in massively overbought territory since the start of the new year, it's almost certain that this correction had been overdue.

Timely corrections are crucial and healthy for the STI as a whole, setting the stage for newer peaks. This time round, investors, affected by the news of tightening control over US banks and putting a cap on the ease of borrowing in the PRC, cashed out, sending prices across the Singapore exchange plunging to November 09 levels. Afterall, it is times like these that people buy on the weak and sell on 'bad' news.

My dad attributed the plunge over the past week to the risk taking habits by contra players, using cash they don't have and selling when the market direction doesn't favor their stand, causing them to lose the cash they don't have in favor of minimizing losses.

Punters..

I've said it before and will say it again..Stock markets favor those with holding power and the ability to see beyond the general perspective. It also favors those with a longer time horizon for investing. Now I understand why Warren Buffet regrets that he started investing too late. One year can make hell lot of difference.

18/1 review on Keppel Corp

ANALYSTS CHART COMMENT ON KEPPEL CORPORATION LTD (S$8.56) - BUY : CIMB-GK GOH SECURITIES RESEARCH HOUSE - 18/01/2010

Company Background
Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.
Latest Development

Dec-09, Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (SSTEC) took another leap forward in its devt as it began construction on the 130-ha Eco-Industrial Park, estimated to cost about Rmb4b to develop and draw in Rmb4b worth of invs and about 10k jobs when completed. Earlier, SSTEC signed an Rmb13b agmt with Farglory Land Beijing to develop a 1.4m sqm integrated eco community for nearly 13k households as well as a "play" hub for residents and visitors of the TEC when fully completed in 2014. Co won another US$152m contract from Noble to upgrade and repair a 3rd Brazil-based drillship. Co clinched 3 contracts worth $160m, for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel conversion, a Derrick Lay Barge completion and the life extension of a semisubmersible rig.9M09 earnings soared 61.2% on the back of an exceptional $422.2m gain from sale of stake in SPC. Stripping out one-time item, earnings increased 10.6% to $922.19m. As at 30 Sep-09, Co has a net cash of almost $1b and a net cash ratio of 0.12 times.

Chart Comment
FY10P/E: 13.7x, P/BV: 2.1x
• Since the breakout of its triangle, we have remained bullish on the stock with the last buy call on the 4th Dec. It has yet to make to reach the targeted S$9.00-9.35 levels but it has managed new 52-week highs since then.
• As its MACD is still above its trend line and the stock is trading above its moving averages, we are still bullish on the stock. The RSI is neutral at the moment.
• The stock is still a buy with the same stop loss point of below S$8.10, its critical support. S$9.00-9.35 remains the likely upside resistance.


Prices of Keppel had dropped at least $0.15 since the report. Still believe in the fundamentals of Keppel though, might be buying in a lot or 2 if it drops close to $8.35.

An extract to brood upon

Something interesting I've read on Friday from one of the investment research houses..

The STI rebounded in line with the strong wall street overnight. The index could remain volatile in the near term as indicators have turned short term negative. There could still be a chance for the index to head on higher to retest the 2,947 highs and possibly even the 3,000 levels but it has to stay above the support trend line at 2,872. The effects of the bearish island reversal pattern are still intact as long as the 2,947 high is not taken out. Traders should remain cautious at current levels as a break below 2,872 would likely confirm that a longer term reversal is underway with the next target at 2,826-2,832, the breakaway gap. 2,806 is the following support.

Expect the market to correct further in the upcoming week. Managed to buy in Keppel last Thursday. Possible contra option on Monday should it hit $8.60.

Keppel Land fully valued and beyond?

Keppel land has grown 180% YOY relative to this week prices. BNP Paribas says Keppel Land's price has crossed its fundamentals, and exceeded the fair value. I cashed out of Keppel Land last week at $3.63 and prices seem to be hovering around that level ever since.

The strong near term prospects of Keppel Land due to the FY10 Integrated Resort development seem to have already been factored into the price, according to the broker house. Their target price is $3.07 but I am not sure when they are referring to. The financial results due 25th gives some opportunity I sense, but it'll probably be a short spike in price if there is any good news at all. I guess positive sentiment can only go so far.

Decided to buy in Keppel Corp this morning. It hit $8.70 exactly 1 week ago, and presently, the price seems to be hovering around $8.55. I am banking on Keppel's growing order book and potential contracts with Brazil. The possible listing of their on business trust might also unlock some value for their infrastructure assets.

Current market is still being overbought by 752 points, but still 'better' from an investor's perspective compared to yesterday's 1000+ points. Now is the time to start picking out counters.

some important dates..

Some potentially useful information I stumbled upon..

Notice of Dates for Keppel Group's Full Year 2009 Financial Results The Keppel Group of Companies is pleased to announce its full year 2009 financial results on the following dates:
- K-REIT Asia on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Land Limited on 25 Jan 2010
- Keppel Corporation Limited on 26 Jan 2010

Regardless of the result of the financial year, I'm pretty sure FY10 will be a pretty good one for Keppel. Specifically monitoring Keppel Land and Keppel Corp.

OCBC Investment Research Report

According to the 18th Dec report, the top stocks to look out for in FY2010 are:

Ezra Holdings, Genting, Hyflux, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, Midas Holdings, MobileOne, Noble Group, Olam International, Sembcorp Marine, Spore Telecoms, SMRT Corp, StarHub, UOL Group and Wilmar International.

Of course, as always, avoid the hot stocks of the week and understand what you are buying before taking the plunge. Would be reading more into the investment report to see what other counters are worth the money.

On a side note, hot favourite Genting seems to have cooled for the moment. Fair value according to the report is $1.31. Almost fully valued at current prices?

Good bye 2009!

Last day of 2009, a pretty much volatile year for stocks worldwide. Singapore, which suffered or should I say, experienced relatively less volatility than other countries around the world, is gearing up for a more predictable 2010. Personally I would stay out of the US market, though news about recovery constantly return, there is still talk hovering around that fundamentals are not strong enough yet.

The STI seems all set to hit 2900 in the first week of 2010. It seems to be the trend nowadays that no bad news is good news, and if it continues that way, 2010 would offer some steady growth for stocks that have some decent fundamentals and upcoming projects, yet dragged down by negative sentiment this while.

The 3 Singapore banks will continue its uptrend in price, at least in the first month or so and other stocks that are worth having a second look at include Ho Bee, Hyflux, Keppel land and Sembcorp Marine.

The Case for Genting Singapore

One of the major contributors to STI movement this couple of days had been due to a highly traded Genting Singapore. The stock closed at $1.17 last Friday and ran up to $1.24 at the start of this week, and prices show no sign of abating.

The Business Times today talked about Genting and once again, a not too surprising 'Buy' call was issued with target price of $1.30. If I recall, this had been the target price for a couple of broker houses for the past month or so.

This is hardly unexpected, given all the hype surrounding the opening of Genting's RWS during first quarter of next year, probably just in time for the influx of CNY punters. The delay in the opening of Marina Bay Sands by LVS supposedly caused by bad weather and bankruptcy of some of its construction firms probably also contributed to the optimistic outlook for Genting.

Too much hype I must say. Prices are likely to hit $1.30 into the first week of January, but any growth will be muted as short term investors would probably start to cash out. Prices would probably continue moving upward, but much slower than what's happening now. Hence I would probably hold back my horses rather than going in at $1.24.

Oceanus, on the other hand, would be a potential counter coming into 2010. Would look more into this tomorrow.

2900?

Managed to sell off some counters that I deemed moving sideways over the past couple of days. The market is certainly picking up this week, with movements from the 3 banks and Jardine group of companies.

Keppel Corp and Keppel Land seem to be rather bullish recently, and I expect the trend to sustain through till next week. Keppel's Brazil subsidiary had recently acquired a $800m contract from Noble, and their contract book seems optimistic enough to convince me to hold their stock at least into first quarter 2010.

Hyflux has called on a trading halt on news about the collaboration with JGC corp Japan for developing water projects in the PRC. Agreement is through and prices have gone up to a new level apparently, hitting $3.70 on the 14th. This is one counter that am seriously contemplating putting more funds into.

STI looks optimistic, possibly could hit 2900 coming into the new year.

Back in business

The exams are finally over and after a short hiatus, I figure it's probably best to put myself actively in the investing scene again. The overall feeling of uncertainty in the NYSE and NASDAQ has kept me out of the US market at the moment, as fundamentals are STILL not strong for a steady recovery.

Interest rates in the US have been kept low since a year ago to ease financial borrowing on the back of the US financial system collapse. However, interest rates NOW are still near zero, and borrowing is made easier than before, not a good thing since the meltdown was due to living on credit. Economics teaches us that low rates of interest facilitates borrowing and investment, and short term growth. But is this method a sustainable long term solution for recovery?

Time to streamline the SG portfolio. Forsee a busy term next semester, probably have to pick a few stocks to concentrate on. Present attention is given to Hyflux and SembMarine.

finally some time to reflect..

Haven't blogged in ages as I've been kept busy with school work. The STI as of now is 2661 points, and it has been hovering between 2600 and 2700 for the past few weeks. Reason being the uncertainty hovering around global markets, especially the financial market of US.

The fluctuations might be a good thing though, as one can buy into the dips and sell as the prices go upwards. It is of course difficult to tell when, but the road to recovery, no doubt slow, will be an unpredictable one with several dips along the way.

Several counters to look into this period are the REITs..At this point of speaking, Ascendas REIT seems like a good counter to look into given the trend.

The market might continue to fall further next week if the trends of the STI ETF prevail. Might hit the early 2600s again for the upcoming week.

an opportunity?

When the government announced its new property policies to curb speculation of new housing units, half a dozen stock prices for property based stocks such as Allgreen, City Developments and Keppel Land fell overnight.

Took the chance that morning to purchase some lots of Keppel Land and Ho Bee, as the fundamentals of these companies should not be affected by the breaking news. I believe that you can never go too wrong with property in Singapore. Buying a property is more of location than timing, and the companies whose prices had fell this time round weren't only in residential investments.

Upcoming week would be interesting to see if the prices start to show any movement upwards or if investors are still half hearted over the prospect of the property market in Singapore. A perfect example to show how stock prices are so closely related to sentiment.

News. Panic. Sell.

Genting Sg more hype than substance?

Read in the Business Times today about Genting Singapore. Being compared to the tech bubble that started to grow at the start of the internet age, certain analysts have issued 'Buy' signals on Genting, betting on the potential of earnings when the IR begins its operations.

However, fundamentals have been ignored for this loss making company. The optimistic glow shining upon Genting SP has sent the share prices up on a spectacular rise for the past 2 weeks, from about a dollar to $1.21. Prices have fell back to less hyped levels at about $1.06 today.

I would expect the price to drop further, perhaps back to $1. Other stocks have shown great volatility as well. Allgreen properties hit a high of $1.30 in the past week but fell back to my buying price of $1.16.

Would look at the possibility of purchasing some counters tomorrow to make up for those I had sold at the start of September. Hopefully, there would be some dips I can buy in.

just a short note

Do you believe in the September effect?

It is said that bad things in the market take place in the month of September, like the Great Depression in 1930. Will it be a double dip recession this month? Indeed trading volumes have been generally low in SGX and the STI seems to have hit some sort of ceiling slowing down the rebound after the dip.

Having temporarily quit the night trading US market because I couldn't afford the energy and stress amid my studies, I had shifted my focus to the local market. The recent rally in the US market had also died down and the momentum has also influenced the STI.

Have been looking into potential buys now that prices are depressed. My guess is momentum would probably pick up again after next week, though much of the movement will be attributed as usual, to what happens in the US market and more importantly, Hong Kong.

getting busy...

Due to my busy workload and upcoming performances, I would be updating less but this does not mean I'm taking my sight off the stock market.

The next week would be a good week to start shopping around for more counters to hold for the mid to long term. Will be off short term trading for a while, as it would require constant monitoring in the night that wouldn't be too friendly on my well being.

Ok, I got to go. I would try to update as much as possible but it'll depend on my schedule. Happy investing!

Start shopping again

Haven't blogged in a while as the new school term had started, and there were plenty to be busy with.

Had sold off about half of my SGX stocks before and slightly after the market had corrected, and while the index hovers around the region of 2600 and prices of some counters have dipped, it is time for some stock shopping again.

Having made the mistake of overdiversifying earlier on, I had to be more selective this time around. The thing about buying a little of everything actually increased risk exposure, and profits if any, were little for each counter. Hence the investment horizon had to be longer if any significant gain were to be realised across the stocks.

Decided to focus more on the REITs and property stocks this time around. Bought in Yanlord Land in the morning, and still queueing for Allgreen Properties.

Fabchem China reports highest ever quarterly revenue

Fabchem China reports highest ever quarterly revenue

Admist investors cashing out and the market correcting, some good news released at noon sent the stock price of Fabchem to a high of $0.19. This is quite a jump considering the price has been hovering around the likes of $0.11 to $0.13 for the past 2 months at least.

For a better picture, you can check out the company info and charts at SGX under company all-in-one information.

Bullish sentiment surrounding Fabchem is likely to carry on to next week.

a correction

Sold off a considerable number of counters yesterday and this morning. It seemed that the market has started a correction as the STI plunged back to around 2600. It's a good thing I've decided to cash out on several counters to recoup some capital for the next uptrend. Perhaps an index of 2550 would warrant a re-entry into the market, this time focusing on certain sectors like technology.

Had some 'excitement' in the US market last night, where stocks were on a rally. Managed to capitalize a little on the wide and crazy fluctuations of Amercian Axle and Manufacturing and did some day trading.

Perhaps one could pay some attention to Citigroup tonight.