Market has been in oversold territory for the whole of this week and last week, signalling pretty much pessimism in the broad market.
Present holdings in Singtel, Ezra, Capitaland and Keppel Corp seem to be hovering around buying price and it seems the only things I can do is hold or buy more of each counter.
Apparently, resistance is at 2850, failing to break would cause the index to fluctuate under 2800. The fundamentals of the above mentioned companies are pretty strong, and Capitaland was bought on the dip after it hit a high of $4.40.
It would probably be good to keep Keppel in the stable for these couple of months and see what the 'coming dividends' status can do to its share price. 1:5 unit issue is coming up. Timing the sale would be crucial to ensure dividends and maximum capital appreciation.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
so what's going on now..
Market has seen a drop of about 200 points over the past week and a half. Scary I must say, but necessary in the bigger scheme of things. Given that the STI had been in massively overbought territory since the start of the new year, it's almost certain that this correction had been overdue.
Timely corrections are crucial and healthy for the STI as a whole, setting the stage for newer peaks. This time round, investors, affected by the news of tightening control over US banks and putting a cap on the ease of borrowing in the PRC, cashed out, sending prices across the Singapore exchange plunging to November 09 levels. Afterall, it is times like these that people buy on the weak and sell on 'bad' news.
My dad attributed the plunge over the past week to the risk taking habits by contra players, using cash they don't have and selling when the market direction doesn't favor their stand, causing them to lose the cash they don't have in favor of minimizing losses.
Punters..
I've said it before and will say it again..Stock markets favor those with holding power and the ability to see beyond the general perspective. It also favors those with a longer time horizon for investing. Now I understand why Warren Buffet regrets that he started investing too late. One year can make hell lot of difference.
Timely corrections are crucial and healthy for the STI as a whole, setting the stage for newer peaks. This time round, investors, affected by the news of tightening control over US banks and putting a cap on the ease of borrowing in the PRC, cashed out, sending prices across the Singapore exchange plunging to November 09 levels. Afterall, it is times like these that people buy on the weak and sell on 'bad' news.
My dad attributed the plunge over the past week to the risk taking habits by contra players, using cash they don't have and selling when the market direction doesn't favor their stand, causing them to lose the cash they don't have in favor of minimizing losses.
Punters..
I've said it before and will say it again..Stock markets favor those with holding power and the ability to see beyond the general perspective. It also favors those with a longer time horizon for investing. Now I understand why Warren Buffet regrets that he started investing too late. One year can make hell lot of difference.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
18/1 review on Keppel Corp
ANALYSTS CHART COMMENT ON KEPPEL CORPORATION LTD (S$8.56) - BUY : CIMB-GK GOH SECURITIES RESEARCH HOUSE - 18/01/2010
Company Background
Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.
Latest Development
Dec-09, Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (SSTEC) took another leap forward in its devt as it began construction on the 130-ha Eco-Industrial Park, estimated to cost about Rmb4b to develop and draw in Rmb4b worth of invs and about 10k jobs when completed. Earlier, SSTEC signed an Rmb13b agmt with Farglory Land Beijing to develop a 1.4m sqm integrated eco community for nearly 13k households as well as a "play" hub for residents and visitors of the TEC when fully completed in 2014. Co won another US$152m contract from Noble to upgrade and repair a 3rd Brazil-based drillship. Co clinched 3 contracts worth $160m, for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel conversion, a Derrick Lay Barge completion and the life extension of a semisubmersible rig.9M09 earnings soared 61.2% on the back of an exceptional $422.2m gain from sale of stake in SPC. Stripping out one-time item, earnings increased 10.6% to $922.19m. As at 30 Sep-09, Co has a net cash of almost $1b and a net cash ratio of 0.12 times.
Chart Comment
FY10P/E: 13.7x, P/BV: 2.1x
• Since the breakout of its triangle, we have remained bullish on the stock with the last buy call on the 4th Dec. It has yet to make to reach the targeted S$9.00-9.35 levels but it has managed new 52-week highs since then.
• As its MACD is still above its trend line and the stock is trading above its moving averages, we are still bullish on the stock. The RSI is neutral at the moment.
• The stock is still a buy with the same stop loss point of below S$8.10, its critical support. S$9.00-9.35 remains the likely upside resistance.
Prices of Keppel had dropped at least $0.15 since the report. Still believe in the fundamentals of Keppel though, might be buying in a lot or 2 if it drops close to $8.35.
Company Background
Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.
Latest Development
Dec-09, Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (SSTEC) took another leap forward in its devt as it began construction on the 130-ha Eco-Industrial Park, estimated to cost about Rmb4b to develop and draw in Rmb4b worth of invs and about 10k jobs when completed. Earlier, SSTEC signed an Rmb13b agmt with Farglory Land Beijing to develop a 1.4m sqm integrated eco community for nearly 13k households as well as a "play" hub for residents and visitors of the TEC when fully completed in 2014. Co won another US$152m contract from Noble to upgrade and repair a 3rd Brazil-based drillship. Co clinched 3 contracts worth $160m, for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel conversion, a Derrick Lay Barge completion and the life extension of a semisubmersible rig.9M09 earnings soared 61.2% on the back of an exceptional $422.2m gain from sale of stake in SPC. Stripping out one-time item, earnings increased 10.6% to $922.19m. As at 30 Sep-09, Co has a net cash of almost $1b and a net cash ratio of 0.12 times.
Chart Comment
FY10P/E: 13.7x, P/BV: 2.1x
• Since the breakout of its triangle, we have remained bullish on the stock with the last buy call on the 4th Dec. It has yet to make to reach the targeted S$9.00-9.35 levels but it has managed new 52-week highs since then.
• As its MACD is still above its trend line and the stock is trading above its moving averages, we are still bullish on the stock. The RSI is neutral at the moment.
• The stock is still a buy with the same stop loss point of below S$8.10, its critical support. S$9.00-9.35 remains the likely upside resistance.
Prices of Keppel had dropped at least $0.15 since the report. Still believe in the fundamentals of Keppel though, might be buying in a lot or 2 if it drops close to $8.35.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
An extract to brood upon
Something interesting I've read on Friday from one of the investment research houses..
The STI rebounded in line with the strong wall street overnight. The index could remain volatile in the near term as indicators have turned short term negative. There could still be a chance for the index to head on higher to retest the 2,947 highs and possibly even the 3,000 levels but it has to stay above the support trend line at 2,872. The effects of the bearish island reversal pattern are still intact as long as the 2,947 high is not taken out. Traders should remain cautious at current levels as a break below 2,872 would likely confirm that a longer term reversal is underway with the next target at 2,826-2,832, the breakaway gap. 2,806 is the following support.
Expect the market to correct further in the upcoming week. Managed to buy in Keppel last Thursday. Possible contra option on Monday should it hit $8.60.
The STI rebounded in line with the strong wall street overnight. The index could remain volatile in the near term as indicators have turned short term negative. There could still be a chance for the index to head on higher to retest the 2,947 highs and possibly even the 3,000 levels but it has to stay above the support trend line at 2,872. The effects of the bearish island reversal pattern are still intact as long as the 2,947 high is not taken out. Traders should remain cautious at current levels as a break below 2,872 would likely confirm that a longer term reversal is underway with the next target at 2,826-2,832, the breakaway gap. 2,806 is the following support.
Expect the market to correct further in the upcoming week. Managed to buy in Keppel last Thursday. Possible contra option on Monday should it hit $8.60.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Keppel Land fully valued and beyond?
Keppel land has grown 180% YOY relative to this week prices. BNP Paribas says Keppel Land's price has crossed its fundamentals, and exceeded the fair value. I cashed out of Keppel Land last week at $3.63 and prices seem to be hovering around that level ever since.
The strong near term prospects of Keppel Land due to the FY10 Integrated Resort development seem to have already been factored into the price, according to the broker house. Their target price is $3.07 but I am not sure when they are referring to. The financial results due 25th gives some opportunity I sense, but it'll probably be a short spike in price if there is any good news at all. I guess positive sentiment can only go so far.
Decided to buy in Keppel Corp this morning. It hit $8.70 exactly 1 week ago, and presently, the price seems to be hovering around $8.55. I am banking on Keppel's growing order book and potential contracts with Brazil. The possible listing of their on business trust might also unlock some value for their infrastructure assets.
Current market is still being overbought by 752 points, but still 'better' from an investor's perspective compared to yesterday's 1000+ points. Now is the time to start picking out counters.
The strong near term prospects of Keppel Land due to the FY10 Integrated Resort development seem to have already been factored into the price, according to the broker house. Their target price is $3.07 but I am not sure when they are referring to. The financial results due 25th gives some opportunity I sense, but it'll probably be a short spike in price if there is any good news at all. I guess positive sentiment can only go so far.
Decided to buy in Keppel Corp this morning. It hit $8.70 exactly 1 week ago, and presently, the price seems to be hovering around $8.55. I am banking on Keppel's growing order book and potential contracts with Brazil. The possible listing of their on business trust might also unlock some value for their infrastructure assets.
Current market is still being overbought by 752 points, but still 'better' from an investor's perspective compared to yesterday's 1000+ points. Now is the time to start picking out counters.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
some important dates..
Some potentially useful information I stumbled upon..
Notice of Dates for Keppel Group's Full Year 2009 Financial Results The Keppel Group of Companies is pleased to announce its full year 2009 financial results on the following dates:
- K-REIT Asia on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Land Limited on 25 Jan 2010
- Keppel Corporation Limited on 26 Jan 2010
Regardless of the result of the financial year, I'm pretty sure FY10 will be a pretty good one for Keppel. Specifically monitoring Keppel Land and Keppel Corp.
Notice of Dates for Keppel Group's Full Year 2009 Financial Results The Keppel Group of Companies is pleased to announce its full year 2009 financial results on the following dates:
- K-REIT Asia on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd on 20 Jan 2010
- Keppel Land Limited on 25 Jan 2010
- Keppel Corporation Limited on 26 Jan 2010
Regardless of the result of the financial year, I'm pretty sure FY10 will be a pretty good one for Keppel. Specifically monitoring Keppel Land and Keppel Corp.
Monday, January 4, 2010
OCBC Investment Research Report
According to the 18th Dec report, the top stocks to look out for in FY2010 are:
Ezra Holdings, Genting, Hyflux, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, Midas Holdings, MobileOne, Noble Group, Olam International, Sembcorp Marine, Spore Telecoms, SMRT Corp, StarHub, UOL Group and Wilmar International.
Of course, as always, avoid the hot stocks of the week and understand what you are buying before taking the plunge. Would be reading more into the investment report to see what other counters are worth the money.
On a side note, hot favourite Genting seems to have cooled for the moment. Fair value according to the report is $1.31. Almost fully valued at current prices?
Ezra Holdings, Genting, Hyflux, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, Midas Holdings, MobileOne, Noble Group, Olam International, Sembcorp Marine, Spore Telecoms, SMRT Corp, StarHub, UOL Group and Wilmar International.
Of course, as always, avoid the hot stocks of the week and understand what you are buying before taking the plunge. Would be reading more into the investment report to see what other counters are worth the money.
On a side note, hot favourite Genting seems to have cooled for the moment. Fair value according to the report is $1.31. Almost fully valued at current prices?
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